The geopolitical entanglements of the past year are beginning to unravel. It all started when the Russians grew tired of the Ukrainians not honouring the two Minsk agreements, which involved leaving the Russian minority alone and some autonomy. The Russians took a limited force and went in to “scare” the Ukrainians to the negotiating table. Hence the strange attack on Kiev, with extremely few men, and other blunders.
On the other hand, there was very little resistance south of Crimea, and they quickly expanded northwards. On the other hand, around the breakaway republics of Donetsk-Luhansk, it was extremely fortified, and the Ukrainian soldiers had been trained and armed by NATO. There I think the Russians were surprised, and slowly realised that the “punishment expedition” had to be expanded into a real army, which they did during the latter half of the war. This also contradicts the media’s portrayal of the whole thing as an outright invasion. If it was an invasion, why so few troops?
However, the Russians realised that US military support for Ukraine would not last forever. Even a layman can figure out how many artillery shells are produced in the East and West. And which ones have sold off and dismantled their manufacturing industry. And that the news cycle in the West changes after 6-12 months. And when the media shadow falls, what a unique opportunity for the Russians to take over the parts of Ukraine they are interested in, and create internal unity against the stupid decadent West.
Instead, Western media attention is now focused on Israel, where two American aircraft carrier convoys have been deployed. And two more are apparently on their way, totalling four, which is considered an unusually strong show of force. What’s the point of having four aircraft carrier convoys in the area? Chasing Hamas fighters buried in tunnels along the Gaza Strip? Or are they about to launch something bigger?
An attack on Syria or Iran cannot be ruled out. This would possibly give President Biden the victory he so badly wants after the turmoil in Ukraine. Let’s not forget that next year there are presidential elections in the US. And after countless mistakes, blunders, stupidities and failures, Biden wants a feather in his cap.
At the same time, the stage is set for the Suez crisis of the American empire, the benchmark for the decline of the former (British) empire. If something unforeseen happens during this show of strength, the display could quickly turn into a sign of weakness. And become the moment when the American imperial forces return home with their tails between their legs.
The Americans will put extreme energy into making the Israeli conflict look like a victory in the end. But they have little time, and not the same logistical possibilities as 20 years ago, with fewer troops and a weaker military industry behind them. There are even rumours that the US army would not last long without Chinese semiconductor technology. And Biden counts the Chinese among the forces of evil, their enemies, on whom they are also so dependent.
The world is waiting patiently for Biden to retire. And for the West to become the West again.